Sun, Dec 18, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 06 | 28 | 110 | 11 | 425 |
| VAN | 03 | 06 | 37 | 01 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:10CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Sam Gagner, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–0
- P2 13:18CBJBrandon SaadPPAssists: Scott Hartnell, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 2:51VANBrandon SutterPPAssists: Sven Baertschi, Troy Stecher · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–1
- P3 7:42VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 15:21CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Nick Foligno · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 18:51VANJannik HansenAssists: Troy Stecher, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 0:46CBJSeth JonesGWGAssists: Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 0:35VANLuca Sbisa: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:09CBJZach Werenski: Interference2 min
- P2 11:48VANLuca Sbisa: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:07CBJSeth Jones: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:52CBJRyan Murray: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:01CBJRyan Murray: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Saad – Wennberg13:01
xG 0.50–0.14 (78%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Gagner – Sedlak6:36
xG 0.18–0.01 (94%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson9:26
xG 0.24–0.16 (61%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner11:00
xG 0.05–0.43 (11%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski12:59
xG 0.42–0.06 (88%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Johnson – Savard18:55
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Murray – Jones3:49
xG 0.02–0.05 (27%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Hansen14:10
xG 0.60–0.33 (64%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Sutter – Granlund10:16
xG 0.14–0.17 (44%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Skille – Chaput – Megna6:17
xG 0.03–0.28 (8%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Burrows – Baertschi – Horvat10:18
xG 0.12–0.39 (23%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Biega – Hutton2:13
xG 0.05–0.01 (88%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Stecher14:43
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Tanev2:23
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).