Sun, Dec 18, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
New Jersey Devils 2, New York Rangers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 011 | 110 | 16 | 04 | 1 | 231 |
| NYR | 08 | 08 | 29 | 02 | 2 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:37NJDPA ParenteauPPAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Damon Severson · Tip-in, 0.40 xG1–0
- P3 8:10NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P3 10:32NJDMiles WoodAssists: Adam Henrique, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 18:47NYRDerek StepanAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Klein · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NYR Mats Zuccarello scored
- 2. NJD PA Parenteau stopped
- 3. NYR Jimmy Vesey stopped
- 4. NJD Taylor Hall stopped
- 5. NYR Derek Stepan stopped
- 6. NJD Michael Cammalleri scored
- 7. NYR Kevin Hayes scored
- 8. NJD Damon Severson stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:31NYRMatt Puempel: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:02NJDMiles Wood: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:50NYRMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:13NYRMarc Staal: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 8:32NJDDamon Severson: Interference2 min
- P2 18:14NYROscar Lindberg: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Palmieri – Wood11:02
xG 0.77–0.46 (63%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Hall – Zacha2:39
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Zajac – Hall12:26
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Bennett – Zacha6:54
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Severson14:19
xG 0.82–0.25 (77%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Greene – Lovejoy14:59
xG 0.85–0.54 (61%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Quincey – Moore14:23
xG 0.44–0.52 (46%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Hayes – Miller8:21
xG 0.39–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Grabner – Lindberg – Fast2:24
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Lindberg – Fast – Miller3:23
xG 0.07–0.21 (24%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Grabner – Hrivik – Puempel3:57
xG 0.02–0.24 (6%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Holden14:39
xG 0.42–0.35 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh12:50
xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Klein – Skjei14:25
xG 0.48–1.13 (30%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).