Mon, Dec 19, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Anaheim Ducks 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 08 | 19 | 211 | 328 |
| TOR | 011 | 15 | 119 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:27TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Zach Hyman · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 18:01ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.29 xG1–1
- P3 1:21ANANick RitchieAssists: Ondrej Kase · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
- P3 11:42TORNazem KadriAssists: Matt Hunwick · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 13:08ANACam FowlerPPGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:18ANARickard Rakell: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:36TORConnor Carrick: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:21TORWilliam Nylander: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:36TORNikita Soshnikov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:38ANAOndrej Kase: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:45TORNikita Zaitsev: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:50ANAJosh Manson: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:05TORZach Hyman: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Ritchie – Kase7:09
xG 0.61–0.19 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg9:12
xG 0.19–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Boll – Cramarossa – Shaw3:11
xG 0.02–0.01 (63%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell11:38
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm13:38
xG 1.01–0.13 (88%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Holzer3:46
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Holzer – Vatanen2:05
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Marner – Matthews2:51
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Martin – Leivo – Gauthier3:27
xG 0.05–0.05 (51%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Soshnikov6:37
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Leivo3:12
xG 0.05–0.08 (36%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Zaitsev14:05
xG 0.60–0.32 (65%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Rielly – Carrick2:10
xG 0.03–0.15 (17%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Polak – Hunwick12:13
xG 0.05–0.21 (20%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).