Mon, Dec 19, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Calgary Flames 4, Arizona Coyotes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 111 | 310 | 428 |
| ARI | 115 | 02 | 110 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:12ARIChristian DvorakAssists: Josh Jooris · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 8:10CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Matthew Tkachuk · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 0:20CGYTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 9:07ARIRyan WhiteAssists: Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 12:25CGYKris VersteegPPGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 19:00CGYTJ BrodieENAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Backhand, 0.66 xG4–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:46CGYMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:23ARIAlex Goligoski: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:06ARIJakob Chychrun: Holding2 min
- P2 7:23ARIJamie McGinn: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:43CGYDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:43ARIJamie McGinn: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:11ARIConnor Murphy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:22ARIShane Doan: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:22ARIShane Doan: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:22CGYMichael Frolik: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:07CGYDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:27CGYSean Monahan: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:15ARIShane Doan: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:45CGYSam Bennett: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:00CGYDeryk Engelland: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Holland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk9:32
xG 0.57–0.16 (78%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Gaudreau – Monahan3:56
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Stajan – Ferland – Hathaway5:41
xG 0.21–0.09 (71%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Chiasson – Gaudreau – Bennett5:45
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Brodie15:07
xG 0.86–0.24 (79%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Engelland – Jokipakka9:39
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton14:32
xG 0.36–0.67 (35%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Holland – Duclair7:34
xG 0.32–0.14 (69%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- White – Jooris – Dvorak5:47
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Doan – Rieder – Martinook8:48
xG 0.38–0.53 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Crouse9:30
xG 0.21–0.59 (27%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy13:14
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Stone14:08
xG 0.45–0.72 (39%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Schenn – Chychrun9:56
xG 0.24–0.52 (31%)attempts 8–14goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).