Tue, Dec 20, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Anaheim Ducks 1, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 17 | 03 | 03 | 113 |
| MTL | 110 | 112 | 312 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:19ANAAndrew CoglianoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 19:00MTLPaul ByronAssists: Jeff Petry, Torrey Mitchell · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 12:35MTLTomas PlekanecPPGWGAssists: Paul Byron, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 4:32MTLJeff PetryUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 8:52MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 19:13MTLChris TerryAssists: Michael McCarron, Nathan Beaulieu · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:45ANASami Vatanen: Interference2 min
- P1 14:30MTLMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:05ANACam Fowler: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:15ANANick Ritchie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:51ANAKorbinian Holzer: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:06MTLAlexei Emelin: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00MTLTorrey Mitchell: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:52ANAJonathan Bernier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:04ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell6:52
xG 0.05–0.15 (27%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:55
xG 0.22–0.41 (34%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Cramarossa – Shaw – Noesen6:49
xG 0.01–0.24 (5%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Vermette – Ritchie – Kase6:53
xG 0.16–0.73 (18%)attempts 2–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Vatanen – Fowler14:51
xG 0.28–0.61 (31%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Holzer9:56
xG 0.09–0.49 (15%)attempts 4–10goals 0–2
- Manson – Lindholm15:56
xG 0.14–0.92 (13%)attempts 5–16goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Byron – Gallagher7:23
xG 0.48–0.01 (98%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Flynn – Lehkonen8:52
xG 0.22–0.03 (88%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Danault11:43
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Terry – McCarron – Carr6:40
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Emelin14:46
xG 0.74–0.25 (75%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Barberio – Redmond10:19
xG 0.44–0.03 (94%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Petry – Beaulieu13:43
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).