Tue, Dec 20, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 012 | 18 | 127 |
| TBL | 113 | 311 | 07 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:02TBLBrian BoyleAssists: Anton Stralman, Jonathan Drouin · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 7:41TBLJonathan DrouinPPGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson · Slap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 17:04TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–3
- P2 19:27TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Alex Killorn, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–4
- P3 19:49DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Nick Jensen, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 12:14DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:43TBLAlex Killorn: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:08TBLJT Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:08DETAndreas Athanasiou: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:08TBLJT Brown: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:26TBLValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:07DETXavier Ouellet: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:34DETLuke Glendening: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:00TBLAndrej Sustr: Broken stick2 min
- P2 13:21TBLVictor Hedman: Interference2 min
- P2 14:28DETXavier Ouellet: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:28TBLValtteri Filppula: Embellishment2 min
- P2 16:14DETDrew Miller: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:11DETDrew Miller: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:11DETDrew Miller: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richard won the faceoff against Sheahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Tatar – Mantha7:49
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Nyquist7:33
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Glendening – Larkin7:33
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Ott – Miller – Athanasiou6:26
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Jensen4:08
xG 0.45–0.08 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Ericsson – Sproul7:37
xG 0.41–0.14 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Sproul4:04
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Namestnikov – Point12:03
xG 0.79–0.42 (65%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Condra – Johnson – Conacher7:10
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Brown – Richard – Paquette10:11
xG 0.11–0.22 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Filppula – Boyle – Drouin7:00
xG 0.22–0.75 (22%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman11:08
xG 0.54–0.15 (78%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Garrison – Sustr11:37
xG 0.51–0.46 (53%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Coburn – Hedman2:04
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).