Wed, Dec 21, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Edmonton Oilers 3, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 212 | 18 | 01 | 321 |
| ARI | 010 | 110 | 116 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:13EDMMark LetestuAssists: Zack Kassian, Matt Hendricks · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 15:07EDMMilan LucicPPAssists: Mark Letestu, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 2:16EDMMatt HendricksGWGAssists: Mark Letestu, Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 11:19ARIMartin HanzalPPAssists: Radim Vrbata, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 19:53ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Radim Vrbata, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–2
Penalties (21)
- P1 9:53ARIMartin Hanzal: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:08ARIJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:42EDMBenoit Pouliot: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:07EDMAndrej Sekera: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:42ARILuke Schenn: Instigator2 min
- P3 5:42EDMEric Gryba: Major5 min
- P3 5:42ARILuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:42ARILuke Schenn: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:42EDMEric Gryba: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:42EDMEric Gryba: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 6:12ARIRadim Vrbata: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:34ARILawson Crouse: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:34EDMPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:34EDMPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:07ARIMartin Hanzal: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:07EDMMark Letestu: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:16ARIMartin Hanzal: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:16EDMMark Letestu: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 19:16ARIShane Doan: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:16EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:16EDMZack Kassian: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Martinook
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Letestu – Kassian8:45
xG 0.61–0.32 (66%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Lucic – Eberle – McDavid12:56
xG 0.46–0.40 (54%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Puljujarvi – Caggiula4:53
xG 0.03–0.01 (84%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Maroon – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl8:28
xG 0.12–0.50 (20%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Davidson11:13
xG 0.44–0.31 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Larsson – Klefbom12:52
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Sekera – Russell13:47
xG 0.39–0.65 (38%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Hanzal – Rieder3:01
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Doan – Martinook – Crouse3:39
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Doan – Rieder – Martinook4:50
xG 0.19–0.04 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Crouse6:57
xG 0.29–0.24 (54%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Stone13:31
xG 0.71–0.21 (77%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1
- Schenn – Chychrun8:46
xG 0.40–0.42 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy12:38
xG 0.32–0.52 (38%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).