Fri, Dec 23, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Montréal Canadiens 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 012 | 013 | 112 | 137 |
| CBJ | 19 | 110 | 05 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:50CBJSam GagnerPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.44 xG0–1
- P2 1:22CBJBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Nick Foligno, Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 9:08MTLJeff PetryAssists: Chris Terry, Mark Barberio · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:31CBJMarkus Nutivaara: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:27MTLAlexander Radulov: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:34MTLAlexander Radulov: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 4:46CBJSeth Jones: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:41MTLPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:38MTLMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTerry – McCarron – Carr7:37
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Gallagher – Danault4:04
xG 0.31–0.10 (75%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Danault7:41
xG 0.20–0.07 (74%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Radulov – Mitchell – Byron4:27
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRedmond – Hanley8:14
xG 0.51–0.06 (90%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Petry – Barberio16:43
xG 0.89–0.45 (67%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- Weber – Beaulieu16:47
xG 0.57–0.39 (59%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg11:40
xG 0.39–0.35 (53%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson10:09
xG 0.14–0.51 (22%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Gagner – Sedlak7:54
xG 0.19–0.56 (25%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner11:13
xG 0.18–0.67 (21%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Jones2:41
xG 0.12–0.03 (78%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Savard – Nutivaara2:06
xG 0.05–0.11 (31%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski9:59
xG 0.13–0.27 (33%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).