Fri, Dec 23, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 4, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 112 | 216 | 01 | 2 | 439 |
| FLA | 111 | 27 | 013 | 03 | 1 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:40FLAReilly SmithPPAssists: Jason Demers, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 0:12DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 1:29FLAJason DemersAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 10:27FLADerek MacKenzieAssists: Mike Matheson, Paul Thompson · Slap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 1:36DETDrew MillerAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 13:51DETFrans NielsenAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.37 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DET Andreas Athanasiou stopped
- 2. FLA Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 3. DET Thomas Vanek scored
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
- 5. DET Frans Nielsen scored
- 6. FLA Nick Bjugstad stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:38DETDrew Miller: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:17DETGustav Nyquist: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:39FLANick Bjugstad: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:55DETXavier Ouellet: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:20FLAJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:25FLAKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:02FLADerek MacKenzie: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:33DETDrew Miller: Interference2 min
- P2 18:43FLAAleksander Barkov: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:32DETJonathan Ericsson: Slashing2 min
- OT 1:28DETAndreas Athanasiou: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Vanek – Nyquist8:18
xG 0.78–0.12 (87%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
- Zetterberg – Tatar – Mantha11:14
xG 0.62–0.16 (79%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Glendening – Athanasiou – Larkin7:11
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Ott – Miller – Sheahan6:13
xG 0.01–0.11 (9%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Sproul8:28
xG 0.71–0.26 (73%)attempts 7–13goals 2–0
- Ericsson – Ouellet15:04
xG 0.56–0.31 (65%)attempts 18–10goals 0–2
- Kronwall – Ouellet3:12
xG 0.20–0.13 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Sceviour – Trocheck – Marchessault2:39
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Sceviour – Bjugstad3:13
xG 0.04–0.01 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Thompson – Rau4:33
xG 0.14–0.13 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Trocheck – Marchessault3:13
xG 0.08–0.10 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kindl – Demers10:49
xG 0.25–0.23 (53%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad12:42
xG 0.17–0.28 (39%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson14:11
xG 0.49–1.41 (26%)attempts 14–21goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).