Tue, Dec 27, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
San Jose Sharks 3, Anaheim Ducks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 16 | 19 | 09 | 11 | 325 |
| ANA | 014 | 112 | 110 | 00 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:30SJSPaul MartinAssists: Logan Couture, Mikkel Boedker · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 8:22ANAOndrej KaseAssists: Nick Ritchie, Antoine Vermette · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 14:18SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Joel Ward, Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 13:35ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Ryan Kesler, Andrew Cogliano · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- OT 2:46SJSBrent BurnsGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:49SJSMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:49ANAJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:54ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:52ANAShea Theodore: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:55SJSKevin Labanc: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:02ANAHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:24ANAAndrew Cogliano: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Ward – Haley – Karlsson8:05
xG 0.18–0.45 (29%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Couture – Boedker – Labanc10:23
xG 0.12–0.50 (20%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski13:11
xG 0.52–0.91 (36%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
- Donskoi – Tierney – Meier9:45
xG 0.33–0.92 (26%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Vlasic – Braun14:36
xG 0.37–0.57 (39%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Dillon – DeMelo12:23
xG 0.23–0.52 (31%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
- Martin – Burns17:39
xG 0.51–1.26 (29%)attempts 13–20goals 2–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg12:33
xG 1.33–0.43 (76%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell8:02
xG 0.82–0.06 (93%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Vermette – Ritchie – Kase5:56
xG 0.41–0.04 (91%)attempts 13–1goals 1–1
- Vermette – Rakell – Kase7:05
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm16:36
xG 1.09–0.37 (75%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Holzer – Fowler13:24
xG 0.73–0.29 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Theodore11:51
xG 0.85–0.45 (65%)attempts 15–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).