Wed, Dec 28, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Florida Panthers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 114 | 113 | 07 | 06 | 1 | 340 |
| FLA | 015 | 013 | 217 | 02 | 0 | 247 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:38TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Connor Brown, Zach Hyman · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 17:54TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Jake Gardiner · Slap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 0:29FLAJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Keith Yandle, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 2:43FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Jakub Kindl, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. FLA Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 2. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 3. FLA Seth Griffith stopped
- 4. TOR Nazem Kadri stopped
- 5. FLA Nick Bjugstad stopped
- 6. TOR Mitch Marner scored
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:07TORFrederik Gauthier: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:23TORFrederik Gauthier: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:22FLAPaul Thompson: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:22TORConnor Carrick: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:25TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:45FLAJakub Kindl: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:55FLAJussi Jokinen: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:13TORJames van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min
- P3 8:44FLANick Bjugstad: Holding2 min
- P3 8:44TORWilliam Nylander: Embellishment2 min
- P3 13:06TORJake Gardiner: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- OT 3:21FLAJonathan Marchessault: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Brown – Matthews12:11
xG 0.72–0.06 (92%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner11:02
xG 0.54–0.37 (59%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Martin – Gauthier – Soshnikov4:10
xG 0.00–0.41 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
- Komarov – Kadri – Nylander12:10
xG 0.12–1.20 (9%)attempts 4–23goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Rielly – Zaitsev16:21
xG 0.85–0.99 (46%)attempts 16–22goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Carrick14:04
xG 0.33–0.69 (32%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
- Polak – Hunwick11:43
xG 0.40–0.80 (33%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Bjugstad – Griffith6:31
xG 0.93–0.21 (82%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Trocheck – Marchessault6:36
xG 0.65–0.11 (85%)attempts 14–4goals 2–0
- Jokinen – Bjugstad – Trocheck4:16
xG 0.30–0.03 (90%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Marchessault2:51
xG 0.03–0.04 (45%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad14:51
xG 1.29–0.53 (71%)attempts 21–16goals 1–1
- Kindl – Demers11:03
xG 0.53–0.33 (62%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Demers – Matheson2:37
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).