Sat, Dec 31, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 1, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 05 | 113 | 09 | 127 |
| BOS | 19 | 29 | 010 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:28BOSFrank VatranoAssists: Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 7:04BOSPatrice BergeronPPGWGAssists: Ryan Spooner, Brad Marchand · Slap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 9:29BOSTim SchallerAssists: Torey Krug, Austin Czarnik · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 19:38BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Ristolainen · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:23BUFCody Franson: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:47BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:40BOSTim Schaller: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:06BUFJack Eichel: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:55BUFEvander Kane: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:55BUFEvander Kane: Misconduct10 min
- P2 10:55BOSKevan Miller: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:02BOSDominic Moore: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:55BOSAustin Czarnik: Interference2 min
- P3 9:17BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Reinhart – Eichel2:15
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Okposo – Kane – Reinhart2:14
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Okposo – Bailey – Reinhart4:57
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Gionta – Kane – Larsson2:38
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Ristolainen5:09
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Franson – Falk5:16
xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Franson – Bogosian2:59
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:10
xG 0.57–0.43 (57%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Moore – Hayes – Blidh4:57
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Nash – Schaller – Czarnik3:02
xG 0.08–0.05 (60%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Krejci – Spooner – Vatrano9:42
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug9:46
xG 0.43–0.16 (74%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug3:01
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Chara – McQuaid2:34
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).