Sat, Dec 31, 2016·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Montréal Canadiens 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 118 | 111 | 00 | 340 |
| PIT | 010 | 214 | 113 | 14 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07MTLAlexander RadulovAssists: Paul Byron, Shea Weber · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 1:07PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Carl Hagelin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 4:28PITPhil KesselAssists: Carl Hagelin, Olli Maatta · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 19:21MTLPaul ByronAssists: Jeff Petry · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 2:04MTLBrian FlynnAssists: Daniel Carr · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 19:05PITConor ShearyAssists: Justin Schultz, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 1:54PITEvgeni MalkinPPGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:05MTLJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:34MTLTomas Plekanec: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:21MTLPhillip Danault: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:18PITPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:52PITTrevor Daley: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:32MTLPaul Byron: Holding2 min
- OT 1:10MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Pacioretty – Danault4:41
xG 0.45–0.02 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Flynn – Lehkonen6:21
xG 0.35–0.04 (89%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Terry – McCarron – Carr3:18
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Plekanec – Flynn – Carr4:39
xG 0.24–0.09 (74%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Beaulieu15:49
xG 1.30–0.66 (66%)attempts 20–19goals 1–0
- Weber – Emelin17:49
xG 0.60–0.45 (57%)attempts 16–21goals 0–1
- Weber – Beaulieu2:25
xG 0.09–0.03 (75%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin11:24
xG 0.61–0.43 (58%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
- Cullen – Crosby – Rust2:49
xG 0.03–0.02 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Wilson4:40
xG 0.08–0.19 (31%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Sheary6:45
xG 0.14–0.25 (35%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Ruhwedel11:30
xG 0.54–0.37 (59%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Cole – Schultz16:11
xG 0.46–0.84 (36%)attempts 18–18goals 1–1
- Daley – Letang14:26
xG 0.13–0.83 (13%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).