Sat, Dec 31, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Arizona Coyotes 2, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 09 | 116 | 14 | 229 |
| CGY | 49 | 06 | 09 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:08CGYMichael FrolikPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 12:09CGYDennis WidemanAssists: TJ Brodie, Kris Versteeg · Slap, 0.01 xG0–2
- P1 12:38CGYLance BoumaGWGAssists: Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
- P1 15:42CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Michael Frolik · Tip-in, 0.01 xG0–4
- P2 15:40ARIBrendan PerliniAssists: Shane Doan, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 11:53ARIMartin HanzalAssists: Jordan Martinook · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:09ARILawson Crouse: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 7:57CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:57ARIConnor Murphy: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:57CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:41ARIShane Doan: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:57ARIAnthony Duclair: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:50CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:21ARIJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:15CGYLance Bouma: Holding2 min
- P2 13:10CGYMatthew Tkachuk: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:00ARITony DeAngelo: Abuse of officials10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Holland – Perlini6:16
xG 0.24–0.07 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Vrbata – McGinn – Martinook2:54
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- McGinn – Martinook – Dvorak6:50
xG 0.22–0.19 (55%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Rieder – Duclair8:58
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – DeAngelo7:56
xG 0.71–0.18 (80%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Stone6:38
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy10:56
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Bouma – Hathaway9:49
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk7:52
xG 0.17–0.04 (80%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Ferland – Bennett6:27
xG 0.06–0.16 (25%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Gaudreau – Monahan8:43
xG 0.17–0.39 (31%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Brodie15:57
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Giordano – Hamilton12:11
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Engelland – Jokipakka12:50
xG 0.37–0.50 (42%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).