Mon, Jan 2, 2017·Busch Stadium, St. Louis Outdoor game
Chicago Blackhawks 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 16 | 011 | 06 | 123 |
| STL | 08 | 115 | 312 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02CHIMichal KempnyAssists: Artemi Panarin, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 7:45STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 12:05STLVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Robby Fabbri · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 13:58STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jori Lehtera, Robby Fabbri · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 18:46STLAlexander SteenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:24STLAlex Pietrangelo: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:40CHIBrian Campbell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:09CHIArtemi Panarin: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 10:50STLRobby Fabbri: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:10CHIRyan Hartman: Interference2 min
- P3 4:54CHIRyan Hartman: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:33STLRyan Reaves: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Lehtera
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestPanik – Rasmussen – Kero6:35
xG 0.64–0.31 (67%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin10:09
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Desjardins – Motte3:36
xG 0.09–0.20 (31%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Motte – Rasmussen – Kero2:17
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Kempny14:14
xG 0.89–0.39 (70%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson12:22
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Campbell – Hjalmarsson2:01
xG 0.03–0.17 (16%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz6:32
xG 0.37–0.03 (93%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Fabbri3:22
xG 0.29–0.06 (83%)attempts 6–1goals 2–0
- Berglund – Jaskin – Fabbri5:11
xG 0.15–0.09 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Berglund – Schwartz – Jaskin2:41
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Gunnarsson8:17
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Edmundson3:18
xG 0.26–0.04 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko14:18
xG 0.33–0.29 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).