Tue, Jan 3, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 4, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 29 | 14 | 16 | 419 |
| NYR | 05 | 115 | 05 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:17BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: William Carrier, Brian Gionta · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 19:21BUFEvander KaneGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–0
- P2 1:03BUFJustin BaileyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 15:55NYRNick HoldenAssists: J.T. Miller, Oscar Lindberg · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 1:10BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Matt Moulson · Tip-in, 0.18 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:27NYRBrady Skjei: Interference2 min
- P2 6:34NYRDan Girardi: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:33BUFWilliam Carrier: Interference2 min
- P3 0:18NYRJimmy Vesey: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:07NYRNick Holden: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:31NYRBrady Skjei: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Girgensons won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Foligno – Eichel10:09
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Gionta – Girgensons – Carrier7:49
xG 0.17–0.18 (49%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Moulson – Grant – Deslauriers5:49
xG 0.10–0.24 (29%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Kane – Bailey – Reinhart8:01
xG 0.29–0.51 (36%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Bogosian17:32
xG 0.87–0.66 (57%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
- Falk – Fedun8:47
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen18:59
xG 0.31–0.67 (32%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Zuccarello14:45
xG 0.75–0.32 (70%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Pirri – Hrivik – Jensen9:14
xG 0.53–0.37 (59%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Lindberg – Fast – Miller8:07
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Vesey9:29
xG 0.02–0.20 (10%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Skjei9:07
xG 0.46–0.11 (80%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Klein – McDonagh12:18
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Klein – Skjei4:10
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).