Wed, Jan 4, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Arizona Coyotes 0, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 010 | 02 | 010 | 022 |
| VAN | 17 | 07 | 210 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:51VANSven BaertschiGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 6:53VANBrandon SutterUnassisted · Backhand, 0.31 xG0–2
- P3 13:43VANBo HorvatAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Chris Tanev · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:41ARIMike Smith: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P2 11:31VANNikita Tryamkin: Holding2 min
- P3 6:53ARILuke Schenn: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 14:38ARIMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:44VANTroy Stecher: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Doan – McGinn – Holland2:45
xG 0.04–0.05 (45%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Rieder11:51
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Martinook – Jooris – Crouse11:30
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- McGinn – Duclair – Dvorak9:06
xG 0.21–0.43 (33%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Connauton – Murphy10:34
xG 0.37–0.39 (49%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- Schenn – Ekman-Larsson17:13
xG 0.36–0.60 (38%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Stone20:38
xG 0.23–0.79 (23%)attempts 13–23goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Baertschi – Horvat7:56
xG 0.59–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Skille – Chaput – Gaunce8:11
xG 0.32–0.07 (83%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Sutter – Granlund11:41
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Megna12:51
xG 0.42–0.43 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Tanev16:06
xG 0.74–0.33 (70%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Edler – Stecher18:15
xG 0.75–0.45 (62%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Hutton – Tryamkin13:46
xG 0.38–0.15 (71%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).