Thu, Jan 5, 2017·United Center, Chicago
Buffalo Sabres 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 16 | 16 | 18 | 00 | 320 |
| CHI | 120 | 19 | 111 | 13 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:21BUFMarcus FolignoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 16:20CHIRyan HartmanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 18:10BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Rasmus Ristolainen · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 18:28CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Michal Kempny, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 1:10BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 17:56CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–3
- OT 0:56CHIPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:18BUFEvander Kane: Elbowing2 min
- P1 13:46BUFZach Bogosian: Interference2 min
- P2 2:17CHIMichal Kempny: Holding2 min
- P2 17:37CHIRyan Hartman: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 19:52CHIBrent Seabrook: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Foligno – Eichel14:40
xG 0.84–0.43 (66%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Gionta – O'Reilly – Girgensons9:41
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Moulson – Grant – Deslauriers3:23
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Bailey – Reinhart9:21
xG 0.14–0.68 (17%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen19:18
xG 0.72–0.66 (52%)attempts 16–22goals 1–1
- Franson – Bogosian16:33
xG 0.43–1.04 (29%)attempts 8–26goals 0–1
- Gorges – Fedun10:40
xG 0.17–0.84 (17%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kane – Panarin15:15
xG 1.39–0.31 (82%)attempts 23–8goals 2–0
- Desjardins – Hinostroza – Rasmussen5:11
xG 0.18–0.02 (91%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Hossa – Toews – Hinostroza3:11
xG 0.24–0.11 (68%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Panarin2:19
xG 0.12–0.02 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook4:08
xG 0.67–0.09 (88%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Hjalmarsson – van Riemsdyk3:33
xG 0.33–0.03 (92%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Forsling9:09
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).