Fri, Jan 6, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Nashville Predators 1, Florida Panthers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 08 | 08 | 113 | 129 |
| FLA | 112 | 015 | 17 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24FLAGreg McKeggAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Paul Thompson · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 5:03NSHCraig SmithAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 10:07FLAJonathan MarchessaultGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
Penalties (18)
- P1 2:57FLAJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:36FLAJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:44NSHAustin Watson: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:21NSHAustin Watson: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:21FLADerek MacKenzie: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:21NSHAustin Watson: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:21FLADerek MacKenzie: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:00FLAJason Demers: Instigator2 min
- P2 4:00NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:00FLAJason Demers: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:00FLAJason Demers: Misconduct10 min
- P2 7:35NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:47NSHYannick Weber: Interference2 min
- P2 17:36FLAPaul Thompson: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:36NSHMike Fisher: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:45FLAJaromir Jagr: Holding2 min
- P3 2:48FLAJason Demers: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:53NSHVladislav Kamenev: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Johansen – Forsberg4:29
xG 0.47–0.08 (86%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Fisher – Watson – Sissons3:04
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Fisher – Watson – Zolnierczyk2:05
xG 0.02–0.02 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Fiala3:02
xG 0.00–0.01 (27%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis14:53
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 11–16goals 1–2
- Ekholm – Irwin12:43
xG 0.19–0.19 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Weber – Bitetto8:35
xG 0.11–0.71 (14%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – McKegg – Thompson3:57
xG 0.19–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Sceviour – McKegg – Sgarbossa4:57
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Jagr – Trocheck – Marchessault9:22
xG 0.24–0.15 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Sgarbossa – McCann2:10
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ekblad10:54
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Kindl – Pysyk8:44
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Kindl – Ekblad2:54
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).