Sat, Jan 7, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Winnipeg Jets 3, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 115 | 215 | 05 | 335 |
| BUF | 110 | 010 | 316 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:48WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 19:36BUFRyan O'ReillyAssists: Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 2:30WPGDrew StaffordPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–1
- P2 7:51WPGJoel ArmiaAssists: Adam Lowry, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.40 xG3–1
- P3 5:12BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 5:38BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Matt Moulson · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 9:54BUFBrian GiontaGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:32BUFCody Franson: Holding2 min
- P2 0:40BUFCody Franson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:08BUFJustin Falk: Holding2 min
- P2 13:42WPGNic Petan: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:34WPGAndrew Copp: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:42WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:51WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00BUFRobin Lehner: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00WPGBryan Little: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00BUFMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00WPGDustin Byfuglien: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00WPGDustin Byfuglien: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:00WPGDustin Byfuglien: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestMatthias – Lowry – Armia11:50
xG 0.67–0.39 (63%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Laine9:01
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Wheeler – Little – Perreault9:35
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
- Stafford – Copp – Petan5:56
xG 0.16–0.30 (34%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Enstrom – Trouba15:58
xG 0.36–0.47 (43%)attempts 14–10goals 1–2
- Byfuglien – Morrissey17:35
xG 0.41–0.63 (39%)attempts 15–14goals 0–2
- Postma – Chiarot7:38
xG 0.14–0.67 (18%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKane – Bailey – Reinhart7:36
xG 0.50–0.20 (72%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Kane – Reinhart2:49
xG 0.07–0.07 (48%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Gionta – O'Reilly – Girgensons8:10
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Okposo – Foligno – Eichel10:10
xG 0.26–0.47 (35%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Fedun6:45
xG 0.20–0.04 (83%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Franson – Bogosian13:45
xG 0.83–0.81 (51%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
- Falk – Bogosian2:06
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).