Sat, Jan 7, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 311 | 18 | 112 | 531 |
| TOR | 210 | 111 | 015 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:20MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Alexander Radulov, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 3:47MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Jeff Petry · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 8:25TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Mitch Marner, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.27 xG2–1
- P1 16:01TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Mitch Marner, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.50 xG2–2
- P1 19:58MTLNikita ScherbakPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P2 0:36MTLAlexander RadulovPPGWGAssists: Shea Weber, Nathan Beaulieu · Snap, 0.22 xG4–2
- P2 18:15TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Mitch Marner, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
- P3 3:51MTLMichael McCarronAssists: Daniel Carr · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–3
Penalties (24)
- P1 3:47MTLAlexander Radulov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 3:47TORLeo Komarov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 7:55MTLTomas Plekanec: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:31MTLAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:20TORJake Gardiner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:20TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:26MTLMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:26TORJosh Leivo: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:10TORMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:10TORFrederik Gauthier: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 10:10TORMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:10MTLMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:10MTLMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:10MTLBobby Farnham: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 10:10TORFrederik Gauthier: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:10MTLBobby Farnham: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:48TORZach Hyman: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:03TORNazem Kadri: Delaying game2 min
- P2 0:00MTLShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:00MTLShea Weber: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00TORZach Hyman: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:40TORJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:45TORAuston Matthews: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 19:17MTLShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Andrighetto – Lehkonen6:38
xG 0.54–0.02 (97%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Danault12:09
xG 0.64–0.28 (70%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Farnham – McCarron – Scherbak3:56
xG 0.27–0.03 (89%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Flynn – Carr5:01
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Beaulieu12:32
xG 0.96–0.38 (72%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Weber – Emelin12:33
xG 0.37–0.05 (88%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Emelin – Barberio2:25
xG 0.02–0.09 (19%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews5:04
xG 0.47–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Nylander4:03
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Komarov – Kadri – Brown4:28
xG 0.03–0.07 (27%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Martin – Leivo – Gauthier3:04
xG 0.05–0.27 (17%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Polak – Hunwick10:46
xG 0.64–0.61 (51%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Carrick13:25
xG 0.30–0.47 (39%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Rielly – Zaitsev12:17
xG 0.28–0.55 (33%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).