Sat, Jan 7, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Rangers 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 17 | 111 | 316 | 534 |
| CBJ | 315 | 113 | 09 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:54CBJMarkus NutivaaraAssists: Josh Anderson · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 4:37CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Sam Gagner, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 14:01NYROscar LindbergAssists: Michael Grabner, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 15:57CBJScott HartnellAssists: Sam Gagner · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 3:00CBJLukas SedlakAssists: Scott Hartnell, Jack Johnson · Snap, 0.24 xG1–4
- P2 4:12NYRMichael GrabnerUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 1:22NYRAdam ClendeningPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 12:57NYRMichael GrabnerAssists: Adam Clendening, Oscar Lindberg · Deflected, 0.01 xG4–4
- P3 19:43NYRMichael GrabnerGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:27NYRRyan McDonagh: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:12NYRMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:15NYRMarek Hrivik: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:19CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:19NYRChris Kreider: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:50CBJDavid Savard: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:13CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Miller – Vesey4:59
xG 0.56–0.10 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello15:40
xG 0.76–0.29 (72%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Grabner – Lindberg – Fast6:08
xG 0.37–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–1goals 3–0
- Lindberg – Fast – Vesey4:45
xG 0.06–0.19 (25%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Skjei12:49
xG 0.77–0.06 (92%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Girardi – Holden3:51
xG 0.14–0.04 (76%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Skjei7:09
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Gagner – Sedlak6:31
xG 0.68–0.07 (91%)attempts 4–4goals 2–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner12:01
xG 0.98–0.55 (64%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson12:26
xG 0.49–0.70 (41%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg10:54
xG 0.23–0.46 (33%)attempts 9–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Nutivaara11:22
xG 0.87–0.19 (82%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Johnson – Savard17:32
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 11–17goals 1–2
- Murray – Jones3:53
xG 0.28–0.35 (44%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).