Sat, Jan 7, 2017·Gila River Arena, Glendale
New York Islanders 1, Arizona Coyotes 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 04 | 112 | 06 | 06 | 0 | 128 |
| ARI | 010 | 011 | 15 | 01 | 2 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:35NYIAlan QuineAssists: Johnny Boychuk · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P3 14:05ARIBrendan PerliniAssists: Connor Murphy, Peter Holland · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. ARI Anthony Duclair scored
- 2. NYI Cal Clutterbuck stopped
- 3. ARI Radim Vrbata scored
- 4. NYI Andrew Ladd stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:00NYIAndrew Ladd: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:31NYIAndrew Ladd: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:33ARIJosh Jooris: Interference2 min
- P2 18:03ARILaurent Dauphin: Charging2 min
- P3 11:10ARIChristian Dvorak: High sticking2 min
- OT 4:26ARIJosh Jooris: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Prince – Strome9:41
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee13:05
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ladd – Quine9:34
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Cizikas6:55
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Hickey13:17
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy2:10
xG 0.05–0.15 (25%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – de Haan13:17
xG 0.16–0.44 (27%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Duclair – Dvorak9:03
xG 0.66–0.15 (82%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Doan – Jooris – Crouse11:32
xG 0.69–0.22 (76%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Holland – Rieder10:50
xG 0.48–0.59 (45%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Chychrun8:33
xG 0.22–0.01 (94%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Schenn – Ekman-Larsson14:13
xG 0.48–0.45 (52%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Stone12:55
xG 0.49–0.51 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).