Sat, Jan 7, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Detroit Red Wings 3, San Jose Sharks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 09 | 217 | 335 |
| SJS | 315 | 010 | 310 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:49DETThomas VanekAssists: Frans Nielsen, Andreas Athanasiou · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 15:59SJSJoonas DonskoiAssists: Tommy Wingels, Mirco Mueller · Deflected, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 17:29SJSMirco MuellerAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Joel Ward · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 19:31SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joel Ward, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 1:50SJSJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Timo Meier · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 4:11SJSMikkel BoedkerAssists: Brent Burns, Paul Martin · Deflected, 0.20 xG1–5
- P3 4:43DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Drew Miller, Luke Glendening · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–5
- P3 10:31SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Joe Thornton, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–6
- P3 13:46DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Frans Nielsen, Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.22 xG3–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 1:23DETFrans Nielsen: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:59DETLuke Glendening: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:56SJSDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Tierney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Tatar – Mantha14:02
xG 1.09–0.38 (74%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Vanek – Athanasiou12:34
xG 0.92–0.34 (73%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Ott – Miller – Glendening7:26
xG 0.11–0.62 (15%)attempts 4–7goals 0–2
- Nyquist – Sheahan – Larkin12:55
xG 0.12–0.82 (13%)attempts 13–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestOuellet – Sproul4:12
xG 0.85–0.17 (84%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser7:58
xG 0.51–0.28 (64%)attempts 9–4goals 0–2
- Ericsson – Marchenko4:26
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Ward – Tierney12:34
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Couture – Donskoi – Labanc11:27
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Boedker – Wingels – Karlsson9:57
xG 0.63–0.50 (56%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Thornton – Pavelski – Meier13:13
xG 0.75–0.80 (49%)attempts 21–14goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – DeMelo2:40
xG 0.20–0.15 (58%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Braun – Dillon14:42
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Martin – Burns17:34
xG 1.20–1.20 (50%)attempts 23–21goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).