Sun, Jan 8, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Boston Bruins 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 18 | 014 | 212 | 01 | 335 |
| CAR | 013 | 210 | 15 | 12 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:10BOSTim SchallerAssists: Dominic Moore, Riley Nash · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 2:57CARSebastian AhoAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Lee Stempniak · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 14:28CARDerek RyanAssists: Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 5:49BOSDavid BackesAssists: Kevan Miller, Ryan Spooner · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 7:20CARJay McClementAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Joakim Nordstrom · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 7:43BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 1:34CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 1:07BOSPatrice Bergeron: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:43CARLee Stempniak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak13:13
xG 0.78–0.20 (80%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Backes – Krejci – Spooner11:28
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Hayes – Vatrano – Czarnik6:13
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Moore – Nash – Schaller13:37
xG 0.95–0.80 (54%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Miller11:37
xG 0.77–0.14 (85%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Chara – Miller5:34
xG 0.10–0.03 (79%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug19:40
xG 0.84–0.86 (49%)attempts 18–21goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Teravainen – Aho13:07
xG 1.13–0.59 (66%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Staal – McGinn – Ryan14:21
xG 0.35–0.59 (37%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- McClement – Stalberg – Nordstrom10:19
xG 0.31–0.68 (31%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Skinner – Rattie – Rask12:04
xG 0.34–0.93 (27%)attempts 12–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Slavin – Pesce21:40
xG 0.57–0.74 (43%)attempts 18–21goals 3–1
- Tennyson – Hanifin10:41
xG 0.51–0.83 (38%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Faulk18:20
xG 0.71–1.13 (38%)attempts 17–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).