Tue, Jan 10, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 013 | 013 | 114 | 140 |
| BUF | 08 | 313 | 16 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:15BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 8:39BUFWilliam CarrierGWGAssists: Taylor Fedun, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–2
- P2 19:51BUFEvander KaneAssists: Sam Reinhart, Zach Bogosian · Snap, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 17:53PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 19:56BUFMarcus FolignoENAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.60 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:28BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:28PHIBrandon Manning: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:03BUFJustin Falk: Holding2 min
- P2 3:57PHIBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:13PHIMichael Del Zotto: Holding2 min
- P3 16:32BUFJake McCabe: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Couturier – Konecny13:51
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Giroux – Read – Raffl12:25
xG 0.50–0.42 (54%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov4:51
xG 0.01–0.01 (46%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Weise – Schenn12:25
xG 0.46–0.48 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gostisbehere13:02
xG 0.55–0.26 (68%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gudas17:26
xG 0.75–0.48 (61%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Provorov13:40
xG 0.23–0.59 (28%)attempts 9–13goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKane – Bailey – Reinhart7:46
xG 0.30–0.17 (63%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Carrier9:42
xG 0.35–0.29 (54%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Eichel8:36
xG 0.05–0.19 (21%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Bogosian17:13
xG 0.64–0.47 (58%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Falk – Fedun9:13
xG 0.33–0.23 (58%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen18:59
xG 0.29–0.84 (26%)attempts 12–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).