Tue, Jan 10, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Boston Bruins 5, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 311 | 116 | 112 | 539 |
| STL | 02 | 19 | 26 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:19BOSFrank VatranoPPAssists: Torey Krug, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 15:20BOSBrandon CarloAssists: Frank Vatrano, David Krejci · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 17:52BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 1:31BOSTorey KrugPPGWGAssists: Ryan Spooner, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–0
- P2 3:57STLColton ParaykoPPAssists: David Perron, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 10:14STLPatrik BerglundPPAssists: David Perron, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 18:43BOSBrad MarchandENAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Backhand, 0.70 xG5–2
- P3 19:35STLKyle BrodziakAssists: Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 6:13STLAlexander Steen: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:13BOSBrandon Carlo: Interference2 min
- P1 7:53STLDavid Perron: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:45BOSBrandon Carlo: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:26STLColton Parayko: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:51BOSColin Miller: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:02STLJori Lehtera: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:46STLScottie Upshall: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:34STLJoel Edmundson: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:34BOSDavid Backes: Instigator2 min
- P2 15:34BOSDavid Backes: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:34BOSDavid Backes: Misconduct10 min
- P2 18:28BOSRyan Spooner: Throwing equipment2 min
- P3 8:52BOSKevan Miller: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak8:30
xG 0.34–0.11 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Backes – Krejci – Vatrano6:04
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Nash – Spooner – Schaller5:30
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Spooner2:14
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Carlo4:44
xG 0.32–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Chara – Carlo9:11
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Miller – Krug3:02
xG 0.14–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Brodziak – Reaves6:14
xG 0.44–0.06 (88%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Berglund – Tarasenko – Schwartz4:30
xG 0.11–0.08 (57%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Fabbri2:33
xG 0.04–0.05 (42%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Fabbri7:46
xG 0.10–0.19 (35%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Shattenkirk – Hunt10:24
xG 0.09–0.19 (32%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Parayko12:23
xG 0.12–0.23 (34%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson12:35
xG 0.21–0.56 (27%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).