Tue, Jan 10, 2017·United Center, Chicago
Detroit Red Wings 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 320 | 09 | 00 | 336 |
| CHI | 216 | 111 | 015 | 11 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:04CHIBrian CampbellPPAssists: Marian Hossa, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 10:30CHIRichard PanikAssists: Ryan Hartman, Duncan Keith · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 1:37DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 9:09DETTomas TatarAssists: Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 18:18CHITanner KeroAssists: Ryan Hartman, Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 19:41DETDrew MillerAssists: Luke Glendening, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–3
- OT 0:38CHIDuncan KeithPPGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:44DETTomas Tatar: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:11DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:14DETMike Green: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:48DETTomas Tatar: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:57CHIPatrick Kane: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:55DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:55CHIRyan Hartman: Embellishment2 min
- P3 6:26DETMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:44DETJustin Abdelkader: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Nielsen – Vanek – Athanasiou9:18
xG 0.30–0.36 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Miller – Sheahan – Glendening6:51
xG 0.27–0.38 (41%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha13:17
xG 0.22–0.47 (32%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Tatar – Larkin5:49
xG 0.26–1.12 (19%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Ouellet2:19
xG 0.68–0.02 (98%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Marchenko – Ouellet7:40
xG 0.47–0.36 (57%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Ouellet – Sproul2:03
xG 0.02–0.02 (46%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestPanik – Hartman – Kero8:21
xG 1.28–0.26 (83%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Hossa – Toews – Hinostroza13:27
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Tootoo – Desjardins – Rasmussen5:23
xG 0.24–0.34 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin12:08
xG 0.56–0.68 (45%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Kempny10:38
xG 1.06–0.32 (77%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Keith – van Riemsdyk2:03
xG 0.22–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson13:56
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).