Thu, Jan 12, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Detroit Red Wings 2, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 211 | 06 | 016 | 233 |
| DAL | 14 | 312 | 15 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:39DALLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Jordie Benn, Patrick Sharp · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 14:09DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- P1 15:42DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Anthony Mantha · Snap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 3:31DALBrett RitchieAssists: Radek Faksa · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 15:53DALJohn KlingbergGWGAssists: Devin Shore · Deflected, 0.33 xG2–3
- P2 16:42DALStephen JohnsAssists: Johnny Oduya, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 18:54DALPatrick EavesENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.53 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:55DALCody Eakin: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:51DALBrett Ritchie: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:03DALTyler Seguin: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 13:10DALRadek Faksa: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:47DETAnthony Mantha: Boarding2 min
- P3 14:22DALJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Ott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Ott – Miller – Glendening8:27
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Vanek – Athanasiou10:24
xG 0.98–1.00 (50%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Abdelkader – Tatar – Larkin9:25
xG 0.33–0.38 (47%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha14:31
xG 0.76–0.95 (44%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – DeKeyser12:51
xG 1.39–0.66 (68%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Jensen – Ouellet9:37
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Marchenko13:37
xG 0.46–0.47 (49%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Ritchie – Shore8:35
xG 1.07–0.19 (85%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin10:30
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Spezza – Roussel – Eakin8:56
xG 0.43–0.61 (41%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Sharp – Korpikoski – Faksa9:51
xG 0.38–0.56 (40%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Benn12:18
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Oduya – Johns12:50
xG 0.70–0.32 (69%)attempts 15–17goals 2–0
- Hamhuis – Johns2:02
xG 0.10–0.05 (69%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).