Thu, Jan 12, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Anaheim Ducks 4, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 214 | 110 | 18 | 432 |
| COL | 18 | 011 | 015 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:52ANAJakob SilfverbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 5:24COLNathan MacKinnonUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 6:15ANARickard RakellGWGAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 6:03ANARyan KeslerAssists: Shea Theodore, Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–1
- P3 18:24ANACorey PerryENAssists: Rickard Rakell, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.66 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:42COLMikhail Grigorenko: Interference2 min
- P2 2:42COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:42ANAJoseph Cramarossa: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:41ANARyan Kesler: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:34ANAJakob Silfverberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:11ANASami Vatanen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg11:42
xG 1.03–0.36 (74%)attempts 18–13goals 2–1
- Cramarossa – Shaw – Noesen5:57
xG 0.20–0.03 (86%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Vermette – Ritchie – Kase9:06
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell10:36
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm14:07
xG 0.71–0.29 (71%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Bieksa – Fowler12:32
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Vatanen – Fowler5:48
xG 0.05–0.10 (33%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:54
xG 0.61–0.35 (64%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Bourque – Duchene – Landeskog2:38
xG 0.11–0.10 (52%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto2:07
xG 0.01–0.05 (15%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- McLeod – Grigorenko – Martinsen4:08
xG 0.03–0.08 (31%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Zadorov4:04
xG 0.13–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Wiercioch2:20
xG 0.04–0.04 (51%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Zadorov2:25
xG 0.01–0.08 (13%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).