Fri, Jan 13, 2017·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Winnipeg Jets 3, Arizona Coyotes 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 19 | 014 | 214 | 337 |
| ARI | 411 | 08 | 010 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:43WPGShawn MatthiasAssists: Toby Enstrom, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 4:49ARIBrendan PerliniAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 8:26ARIPeter HollandAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 10:41ARIJamie McGinnAssists: Luke Schenn, Radim Vrbata · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–3
- P1 14:45ARIBrendan PerliniPPGWGAssists: Radim Vrbata, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–4
- P3 2:46WPGMark StuartAssists: Paul Postma · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 18:30WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Bryan Little, Nikolaj Ehlers · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:08ARIAlex Goligoski: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 11:29ARIJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:07WPGJoel Armia: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:33WPGAdam Lowry: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:50WPGPaul Postma: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers11:38
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Little – Perreault – Armia6:50
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Little – Perreault3:42
xG 0.10–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Armia5:10
xG 0.10–0.12 (44%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Trouba16:29
xG 0.34–0.24 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Stuart – Postma11:37
xG 0.27–0.33 (45%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Morrissey15:49
xG 0.66–0.79 (45%)attempts 20–14goals 0–2
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – McGinn – Holland8:28
xG 0.47–0.18 (73%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
- Dauphin – Jooris – Crouse8:21
xG 0.11–0.12 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Doan – Perlini – Dvorak12:04
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
- Hanzal – Rieder – Duclair10:58
xG 0.15–0.31 (33%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Ekman-Larsson16:07
xG 0.73–0.40 (64%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
- Murphy – Chychrun12:04
xG 0.23–0.33 (41%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Stone15:13
xG 0.21–0.48 (30%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).