Sat, Jan 14, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Rangers 4, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 111 | 214 | 18 | 433 |
| MTL | 010 | 212 | 310 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:24NYRBrandon PirriPPAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Derek Stepan · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 3:08MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Mark Barberio, Max Pacioretty · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 6:20NYRRick NashAssists: Kevin Hayes, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–1
- P2 7:58MTLBrian FlynnAssists: Phillip Danault, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–2
- P2 11:07NYRJ.T. MillerSHAssists: Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 10:53MTLAlexei EmelinAssists: Paul Byron, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- P3 11:29MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Zach Redmond · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 11:55MTLPaul ByronGWGAssists: Phillip Danault, Alexei Emelin · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 14:53NYRDerek StepanAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Nick Holden · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:24NYRBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:20MTLAndrew Shaw: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:56MTLAndrew Shaw: Interference5 min
- P1 16:56MTLAndrew Shaw: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:56MTLAndrew Shaw: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 16:56NYRJ.T. Miller: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:30NYRNick Holden: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:12MTLSven Andrighetto: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Zuccarello13:35
xG 0.68–0.33 (67%)attempts 18–12goals 1–2
- Grabner – Fast – Miller9:27
xG 0.29–0.14 (67%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Nash – Hayes – Buchnevich12:56
xG 0.55–0.71 (44%)attempts 7–18goals 1–1
- Pirri – Lindberg – Vesey6:07
xG 0.19–1.14 (15%)attempts 7–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Clendening14:08
xG 0.66–0.40 (62%)attempts 14–11goals 1–2
- Girardi – McDonagh15:02
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- Klein – Skjei10:47
xG 0.24–1.42 (15%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Shaw – Danault3:50
xG 0.09–0.01 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Lehkonen5:45
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Danault – Flynn – Andrighetto2:37
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Flynn – McCarron3:49
xG 0.03–0.14 (18%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Emelin15:28
xG 0.49–0.16 (76%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Barberio – Redmond9:24
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Petry – Beaulieu15:23
xG 0.19–0.86 (18%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).