Sat, Jan 14, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Islanders 4, Carolina Hurricanes 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 212 | 18 | 112 | 432 |
| CAR | 117 | 318 | 310 | 745 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:16NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Scott Mayfield · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 16:26CARBrock McGinnAssists: Elias Lindholm, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.37 xG1–1
- P1 18:08NYIAnders LeeAssists: Nick Leddy, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 1:52NYIJason ChimeraAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Alan Quine · Snap, 0.36 xG3–1
- P2 4:58CARJustin FaulkAssists: Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.38 xG3–2
- P2 8:57CARElias LindholmAssists: Brock McGinn, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 16:57CARBrett PesceAssists: Brock McGinn, Lee Stempniak · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 1:08NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Anders Lee, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
- P3 5:42CARLee StempniakGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–5
- P3 11:44CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Justin Faulk, Lee Stempniak · Deflected, 0.01 xG4–6
- P3 13:53CARJordan StaalAssists: Matt Tennyson, Brock McGinn · Wrist, 0.46 xG4–7
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Cizikas13:50
xG 0.30–0.42 (41%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee13:54
xG 0.88–1.02 (46%)attempts 17–18goals 3–4
- Ladd – Nelson – Strome14:58
xG 0.33–0.80 (30%)attempts 14–21goals 0–1
- Chimera – Quine – Beauvillier10:07
xG 0.77–1.29 (37%)attempts 14–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Hickey – Mayfield16:13
xG 1.06–1.10 (49%)attempts 15–15goals 2–3
- Seidenberg – de Haan18:18
xG 0.75–0.82 (48%)attempts 25–24goals 0–2
- Leddy – Pelech19:22
xG 0.48–1.76 (21%)attempts 17–30goals 2–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – McGinn – Lindholm14:18
xG 2.18–1.28 (63%)attempts 27–21goals 4–3
- Stempniak – Teravainen – Aho12:31
xG 0.60–0.30 (67%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Skinner – Rask – Ryan16:16
xG 0.62–0.37 (63%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
- McClement – Stalberg – Nordstrom10:57
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce18:45
xG 1.63–1.17 (58%)attempts 27–21goals 3–3
- Tennyson – Hanifin16:19
xG 0.95–0.57 (62%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Faulk21:58
xG 0.76–0.64 (54%)attempts 29–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).