Mon, Jan 16, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Dallas Stars 1, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19 | 011 | 012 | 132 |
| BUF | 213 | 18 | 18 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19BUFTyler EnnisUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 12:34BUFJake McCabePPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 15:14DALRadek FaksaAssists: Jiri Hudler · Deflected, 0.30 xG1–2
- P2 7:07BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–3
- P3 19:50BUFJack EichelENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.72 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:12DALBrett Ritchie: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:17DALRadek Faksa: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:17DALTyler Seguin: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 14:33BUFBrian Gionta: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Eakin – Shore4:36
xG 0.41–0.04 (90%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Hudler – Korpikoski – Faksa8:45
xG 0.67–0.50 (57%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Spezza – Benn – Ritchie3:14
xG 0.11–0.04 (76%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Sharp – Roussel – Eakin6:54
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell18:44
xG 1.51–0.98 (61%)attempts 26–16goals 1–1
- Oduya – Johns13:18
xG 0.50–0.19 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Benn12:23
xG 0.25–0.66 (28%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Ennis – O'Reilly9:18
xG 0.53–0.36 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Moulson – O'Reilly – Carrier4:57
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Reinhart – Eichel12:33
xG 0.81–0.87 (48%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Gionta – Kane – Girgensons9:23
xG 0.01–0.38 (4%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Bogosian16:55
xG 0.78–0.45 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Falk – Fedun12:19
xG 0.31–0.63 (33%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen17:03
xG 0.53–1.19 (31%)attempts 15–25goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).