Mon, Jan 16, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 113 | 111 | 05 | 229 |
| LAK | 112 | 09 | 011 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:33LAKKyle CliffordUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 14:33TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Luke Witkowski · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 18:47TBLBrian BoyleGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:19LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:19TBLLuke Witkowski: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:47LAKDerek Forbort: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:51TBLCedric Paquette: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:09TBLLuke Witkowski: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:49TBLJason Garrison: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:38LAKNic Dowd: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Namestnikov9:30
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Filppula – Boyle – Drouin9:07
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Drouin2:59
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Dumont – Bournival – Paquette7:58
xG 0.66–0.73 (48%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Nesterov16:01
xG 1.36–0.58 (70%)attempts 22–11goals 1–1
- Coburn – Witkowski8:19
xG 0.37–0.46 (45%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Garrison – Sustr12:59
xG 0.54–0.69 (44%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Lewis – Dowd6:55
xG 0.77–0.08 (90%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Brown – Pearson10:27
xG 0.56–0.49 (53%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Gaborik – Lewis – Andreoff2:38
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- King – Nolan – Shore2:34
xG 0.06–0.12 (34%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Gravel7:03
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort18:59
xG 1.23–1.18 (51%)attempts 24–22goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Doughty2:28
xG 0.01–0.04 (21%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).