Tue, Jan 17, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Dallas Stars 7, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 312 | 415 | 04 | 731 |
| NYR | 16 | 29 | 325 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:27NYRDerek StepanAssists: Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 12:34DALPatrick EavesPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–1
- P1 12:46DALPatrick SharpAssists: Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 17:54DALJamie BennAssists: Cody Eakin, Patrick Eaves · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 4:32DALAntoine RousselAssists: Lauri Korpikoski · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–1
- P2 9:56NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Rick Nash, Pavel Buchnevich · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–2
- P2 12:06NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Kevin Klein, Adam Clendening · Wrist, 0.35 xG4–3
- P2 12:54DALPatrick SharpAssists: Devin Shore, Radek Faksa · Wrap-around, 0.20 xG5–3
- P2 15:53DALAdam CracknellAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–3
- P2 17:40DALCody EakinGWGAssists: Patrick Eaves, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.36 xG7–3
- P3 3:11NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.13 xG7–4
- P3 5:31NYRDerek StepanAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.30 xG7–5
- P3 7:26NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Rick Nash, Pavel Buchnevich · Tip-in, 0.32 xG7–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:16NYRChris Kreider: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 1:52DALCody Eakin: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:52NYRChris Kreider: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:52DALTyler Seguin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:16NYRNick Holden: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:16DALPatrick Sharp: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:47DALEsa Lindell: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Faksa – Shore14:33
xG 1.09–0.39 (74%)attempts 18–15goals 2–1
- Eaves – Benn – Eakin11:15
xG 0.97–0.86 (53%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Spezza – Roussel – Seguin11:55
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Hudler – Korpikoski – Cracknell9:44
xG 0.09–0.44 (17%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell20:56
xG 1.52–0.71 (68%)attempts 21–20goals 3–0
- Hamhuis – Nemeth11:16
xG 0.83–0.04 (95%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Johns5:14
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Zibanejad – Buchnevich15:08
xG 1.28–0.92 (58%)attempts 23–13goals 3–1
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller12:49
xG 0.62–0.50 (55%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello13:06
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Pirri – Fast – Vesey5:08
xG 0.08–0.71 (11%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Clendening9:32
xG 0.96–0.47 (67%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
- Holden – Clendening3:24
xG 0.22–0.07 (76%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Girardi – Skjei2:51
xG 0.16–0.05 (75%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).