Tue, Jan 17, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 6, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 211 | 14 | 312 | 627 |
| COL | 110 | 38 | 05 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:38CHINick SchmaltzUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 7:39COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 12:50CHIBrent SeabrookAssists: Dennis Rasmussen, Nick Schmaltz · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 9:03COLBlake ComeauAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikhail Grigorenko · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 10:06COLMatt NietoAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 10:25CHITanner KeroAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- P2 14:08COLMatt DucheneAssists: Tyson Barrie, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 5:10CHIVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Brent Seabrook, Michal Kempny · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–4
- P3 8:11CHIVinnie HinostrozaGWGAssists: Tanner Kero, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–4
- P3 19:49CHITanner KeroENAssists: Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.72 xG6–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:42CHIRichard Panik: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:31COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:29CHIBrent Seabrook: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:34CHIRyan Hartman: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:34COLNikita Zadorov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Hinostroza – Kero10:44
xG 0.57–0.09 (86%)attempts 12–9goals 3–0
- Desjardins – Rasmussen – Schmaltz8:21
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 9–1goals 2–1
- Toews – Panik – Hartman11:16
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Toews – Kane – Panarin3:29
xG 0.06–0.02 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Kempny15:55
xG 0.85–0.41 (68%)attempts 19–9goals 3–3
- Campbell – van Riemsdyk16:49
xG 0.46–0.11 (80%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson16:32
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Nieto – Landeskog10:45
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Comeau – Bourque – MacKinnon3:23
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Colborne – Grigorenko6:08
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–2
- Bourque – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:53
xG 0.14–0.39 (27%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tyutin – Goloubef3:27
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Barrie6:59
xG 0.11–0.09 (54%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Barrie11:39
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 7–12goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).