Tue, Jan 17, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Florida Panthers 2, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 25 | 06 | 011 | 222 |
| CGY | 110 | 314 | 15 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Jared McCann, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 6:39CGYKris VersteegAssists: Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano · Backhand, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 8:25FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Jared McCann, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 4:25CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Michael Frolik, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 11:23CGYMikael BacklundPPGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–3
- P2 11:36CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 17:52CGYSean MonahanENAssists: Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.59 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:28FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:35CGYLance Bouma: Holding2 min
- P2 2:45FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:06FLAJared McCann: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:45FLAJussi Jokinen: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:34CGYSam Bennett: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:27CGYMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:26CGYSam Bennett: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sgarbossa won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Sceviour – Sgarbossa8:15
xG 0.36–0.05 (87%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Jagr – Trocheck – McCann9:50
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 9–12goals 2–2
- Jokinen – Smith – Marchessault8:20
xG 0.05–0.17 (22%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – McKegg – Thompson6:37
xG 0.17–0.55 (24%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ekblad9:03
xG 0.52–0.13 (80%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Yandle – Pysyk9:00
xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Pysyk – Matheson3:10
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk8:08
xG 0.59–0.14 (81%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Monahan10:00
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Gaudreau – Bennett9:29
xG 0.14–0.06 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Hamilton6:19
xG 0.06–0.43 (13%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Brodie16:45
xG 0.74–0.19 (80%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton11:57
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 11–9goals 1–2
- Engelland – Jokipakka12:07
xG 0.14–0.42 (25%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).