Wed, Jan 18, 2017·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Arizona Coyotes 3, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 212 | 08 | 113 | 333 |
| WPG | 18 | 319 | 212 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:49ARIJosh JoorisAssists: Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 3:36WPGBryan LittleAssists: Josh Morrissey, Dustin Byfuglien · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 8:50ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Shane Doan · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 3:03WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 4:42WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Chris Thorburn, Nic Petan · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 12:49WPGJoel ArmiaGWGAssists: Shawn Matthias, Dustin Byfuglien · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 7:42WPGJacob TroubaAssists: Drew Stafford, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–5
- P3 8:59WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Paul Postma · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–6
- P3 14:42ARIJakob ChychrunAssists: Alexander Burmistrov, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:04WPGPaul Postma: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:45WPGToby Enstrom: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:36ARIAlex Goligoski: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 14:01WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Holding2 min
- P2 18:20ARIConnor Murphy: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 9:14WPGMathieu Perreault: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:33ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Burmistrov – Perlini5:20
xG 0.39–0.09 (81%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Doan – Perlini – Dvorak6:14
xG 0.21–0.14 (59%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Vrbata – Burmistrov – Rieder8:49
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Doan – Rieder – Dvorak4:15
xG 0.06–0.16 (26%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Chychrun15:25
xG 0.84–0.43 (66%)attempts 17–17goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Stone15:24
xG 0.53–0.32 (63%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Schenn – Ekman-Larsson12:24
xG 0.18–1.28 (13%)attempts 11–21goals 0–4
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Little – Perreault11:40
xG 0.50–0.31 (62%)attempts 16–5goals 2–1
- Stafford – Scheifele – Copp5:16
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Copp – Petan3:28
xG 0.18–0.08 (69%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
- Matthias – Lowry – Armia10:41
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Trouba17:38
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Byfuglien – Morrissey17:41
xG 0.65–0.53 (55%)attempts 18–11goals 2–1
- Stuart – Postma9:26
xG 0.52–0.69 (43%)attempts 16–15goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).