Wed, Jan 18, 2017·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Boston Bruins 5, Detroit Red Wings 6 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 419 | 14 | 09 | 01 | 1 | 533 |
| DET | 17 | 38 | 18 | 02 | 2 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:44BOSFrank VatranoAssists: Adam McQuaid, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 2:27BOSBrandon CarloSHAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 8:50BOSFrank VatranoPPAssists: David Backes, Ryan Spooner · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P1 15:32DETDylan LarkinAssists: Tomas Tatar, Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P1 19:01BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Torey Krug, Brad Marchand · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 4:21DETXavier OuelletUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG4–2
- P2 9:54DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Thomas Vanek, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P2 14:36DETTomas TatarUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–4
- P2 14:57BOSAdam McQuaidAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–4
- P3 16:56DETGustav NyquistAssists: Dylan Larkin, Tomas Tatar · Backhand, 0.15 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. DET Andreas Athanasiou stopped
- 2. BOS Ryan Spooner stopped
- 3. DET Thomas Vanek scored
- 4. BOS Brad Marchand scored
- 5. DET Frans Nielsen scored
- 6. BOS Frank Vatrano stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:00BOSDominic Moore: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:13DETDanny DeKeyser: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:24DETXavier Ouellet: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:08BOSAustin Czarnik: Interference2 min
- P3 17:20BOSDavid Pastrnak: Roughing2 min
- OT 4:48BOSFrank Vatrano: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Vatrano11:01
xG 1.07–0.53 (67%)attempts 15–7goals 1–2
- Moore – Nash – Blidh5:19
xG 0.40–0.06 (86%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Backes – Spooner – Czarnik5:05
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
- Krejci – Schaller – Pastrnak14:50
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Morrow10:51
xG 0.73–0.08 (90%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug17:18
xG 1.12–0.75 (60%)attempts 18–14goals 2–1
- Krug – Carlo2:24
xG 0.15–0.02 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Sheahan – Larkin10:29
xG 0.49–0.28 (64%)attempts 7–6goals 3–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Mantha3:13
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Abdelkader2:09
xG 0.04–0.05 (45%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Abdelkader – Glendening3:56
xG 0.15–0.41 (27%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Green15:16
xG 0.71–0.53 (57%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
- Marchenko – DeKeyser14:50
xG 0.58–0.53 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Ericsson – Jensen2:32
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).