Wed, Jan 18, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
San Jose Sharks 3, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 29 | 112 | 06 | 327 |
| LAK | 17 | 112 | 05 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:31SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Joe Thornton, Melker Karlsson · Snap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 5:46LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Derek Forbort, Dustin Brown · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 15:42SJSTommy WingelsAssists: Micheal Haley · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 10:00SJSJoe PavelskiPPGWGAssists: Joel Ward, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–1
- P2 15:19LAKMarian GaborikAssists: Kyle Clifford, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:41LAKMarian Gaborik: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:42SJSJustin Braun: Holding2 min
- P2 3:10SJSRyan Carpenter: Interference2 min
- P2 9:51LAKJeff Carter: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:48SJSTommy Wingels: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:06SJSMelker Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P2 13:06LAKTrevor Lewis: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:06LAKTrevor Lewis: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:35LAKKyle Clifford: Delaying game2 min
- P2 15:35SJSMicheal Haley: Delaying game2 min
- P2 17:56LAKDevin Setoguchi: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:35SJSPatrick Marleau: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Boedker – Labanc7:20
xG 0.43–0.09 (83%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Haley – Wingels – Carpenter6:54
xG 0.29–0.08 (79%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson12:09
xG 0.49–0.51 (49%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Ward – Tierney – Meier7:55
xG 0.10–0.33 (24%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Dillon10:34
xG 0.53–0.29 (64%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun11:53
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Martin – Burns14:42
xG 0.22–0.40 (36%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- King – Nolan – Shore9:11
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Carter – Brown – Pearson9:03
xG 0.36–0.35 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Setoguchi – Clifford – Dowd7:54
xG 0.10–0.16 (39%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Kopitar – Lewis10:08
xG 0.17–0.60 (22%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Gravel6:42
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb3:21
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort12:58
xG 0.51–0.52 (50%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).