Thu, Jan 19, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Rangers 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 219 | 116 | 26 | 541 |
| TOR | 19 | 19 | 07 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:42NYRBrady SkjeiAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 10:16TORTyler BozakAssists: Mitch Marner, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P1 14:44NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Rick Nash, Brady Skjei · Tip-in, 0.35 xG2–1
- P2 9:02NYRJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Kevin Hayes, Adam Clendening · Snap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 16:02TORZach HymanSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 14:57NYRMichael GrabnerSHAssists: Kevin Hayes, Nick Holden · Snap, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 17:03NYRMichael GrabnerENUnassisted · Snap, 0.63 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:22TORConnor Carrick: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:28NYRChris Kreider: Holding2 min
- P2 11:21TORFrank Corrado: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:12TORFrank Corrado: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:12TORMatt Hunwick: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 13:52NYROscar Lindberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:24TORMatt Martin: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:24NYRAdam Clendening: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Zibanejad – Buchnevich10:04
xG 1.01–0.22 (82%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller9:53
xG 0.66–0.72 (48%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Pirri – Lindberg – Vesey7:21
xG 0.02–0.21 (7%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello12:26
xG 0.33–0.95 (26%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestClendening – Skjei12:17
xG 0.91–0.65 (58%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Girardi – McDonagh14:44
xG 0.66–0.56 (54%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Klein – Skjei2:07
xG 0.09–0.08 (53%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Nylander10:07
xG 0.91–0.40 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:44
xG 0.83–0.46 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Martin – Gauthier – Soshnikov9:04
xG 0.17–0.27 (38%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews10:39
xG 0.51–1.15 (31%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev8:53
xG 0.68–0.42 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Polak – Corrado4:22
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Zaitsev5:47
xG 0.34–0.17 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).