Thu, Jan 19, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Nashville Predators 4, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 19 | 27 | 15 | 421 |
| CGY | 014 | 05 | 316 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:59NSHJames NealAssists: Mike Fisher, Anthony Bitetto · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 11:23NSHRyan EllisAssists: Harry Zolnierczyk · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 18:58NSHRyan EllisPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Viktor Arvidsson · Slap, 0.18 xG3–0
- P3 8:21NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–0
- P3 16:17CGYKris VersteegPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Sean Monahan · Slap, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 16:34CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Mikael Backlund, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 19:12CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:00NSHCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:00CGYDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:46NSHMatt Irwin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:00NSHRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:11CGYDougie Hamilton: Interference2 min
- P2 7:39CGYMatt Stajan: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:30CGYDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:30NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:50NSHAnthony Bitetto: Interference2 min
- P2 18:26CGYDeryk Engelland: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:20NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:13CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:50NSHRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson7:21
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Fisher – Smith – Watson8:57
xG 0.13–0.21 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- McLeod – Grant – Zolnierczyk5:34
xG 0.08–0.17 (31%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Ribeiro – Neal – Jarnkrok7:22
xG 0.15–0.26 (37%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Irwin13:28
xG 0.76–0.45 (63%)attempts 18–15goals 2–1
- Weber – Irwin2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Bitetto – Carrier9:28
xG 0.13–0.34 (27%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk9:36
xG 0.59–0.07 (89%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Stajan – Chiasson – Gaudreau2:06
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Bouma – Hamilton – Ferland7:56
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Stajan – Versteeg – Chiasson6:50
xG 0.13–0.17 (42%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Brodie10:17
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Giordano – Hamilton13:30
xG 0.64–0.54 (54%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Engelland – Jokipakka14:54
xG 0.40–0.41 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).