Sat, Jan 21, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 3, Montréal Canadiens 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 014 | 19 | 114 | 11 | 338 |
| MTL | 09 | 219 | 07 | 03 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:54MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Paul Byron · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 4:50BUFBrian GiontaAssists: Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 8:50MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Jeff Petry, Max Pacioretty · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 11:53BUFCody FransonAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 1:48BUFZach BogosianGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Evander Kane · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 19:48MTLAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:26MTLAlexei Emelin: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:26BUFJustin Falk: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:26MTLMark Barberio: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Kane – Girgensons12:10
xG 0.93–0.66 (58%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Moulson – O'Reilly – Carrier3:48
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Reinhart – Eichel11:25
xG 0.27–0.55 (33%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Okposo – Ennis – O'Reilly13:02
xG 0.20–0.76 (21%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFedun – Ristolainen13:56
xG 1.12–0.88 (56%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Falk – Nelson7:23
xG 0.30–0.31 (50%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Falk – Ristolainen4:13
xG 0.05–0.07 (41%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Byron – Lehkonen9:57
xG 0.60–0.24 (71%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Danault14:44
xG 0.65–0.40 (62%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Flynn – de la Rose6:43
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Shaw – Galchenyuk – Andrighetto11:34
xG 0.82–1.09 (43%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Beaulieu17:54
xG 0.99–0.59 (63%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Weber – Emelin14:20
xG 0.57–0.49 (54%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
- Barberio – Redmond8:53
xG 0.53–0.50 (51%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).