Sat, Jan 21, 2017·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Arizona Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 111 | 013 | 224 | 348 |
| ARI | 28 | 39 | 06 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:05ARITobias RiederAssists: Radim Vrbata, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 10:19ARIRadim VrbataAssists: Martin Hanzal, Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 18:39TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Gabriel Dumont, Michael Bournival · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–2
- P2 14:56ARIMichael StonePPAssists: Martin Hanzal, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 16:25ARIChristian FischerGWGAssists: Jamie McGinn, Alexander Burmistrov · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 19:44ARIMartin HanzalAssists: Radim Vrbata, Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–5
- P3 9:45TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–5
- P3 14:18TBLOndrej PalatPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Nikita Nesterov · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:36ARIJamie McGinn: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:05ARIPeter Holland: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:05ARIPeter Holland: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:05ARIRyan White: Misconduct10 min
- P2 12:56TBLOndrej Palat: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:58TBLValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:18ARIJakob Chychrun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 13:58ARIShane Doan: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:16TBLCedric Paquette: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestDumont – Bournival – Paquette10:17
xG 0.84–0.24 (77%)attempts 23–6goals 1–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Kucherov3:17
xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Filppula – Boyle – Drouin5:39
xG 0.11–0.24 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov2:34
xG 0.02–0.17 (11%)attempts 1–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Witkowski3:05
xG 0.57–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Coburn – Sustr6:23
xG 0.54–0.16 (77%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Nesterov – Sustr4:08
xG 0.32–0.03 (91%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Perlini – Dvorak12:50
xG 0.73–0.36 (67%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Rieder11:23
xG 0.49–0.54 (48%)attempts 13–11goals 3–0
- White – Holland – Crouse8:16
xG 0.34–0.50 (40%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
- McGinn – Burmistrov – Fischer7:04
xG 0.13–0.58 (18%)attempts 3–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Murphy – Chychrun14:29
xG 0.68–0.84 (45%)attempts 15–24goals 0–1
- Schenn – Ekman-Larsson15:38
xG 0.68–0.86 (44%)attempts 14–17goals 2–0
- Goligoski – Stone13:42
xG 0.35–0.76 (32%)attempts 9–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).