Sat, Jan 21, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 2, San Jose Sharks 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 013 | 110 | 110 | 00 | 233 |
| SJS | 19 | 111 | 07 | 13 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:36SJSJoel WardPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 10:30COLMikhail GrigorenkoAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cody Goloubef · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 15:01SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Ryan Carpenter · Deflected, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 10:24COLFrancois BeaucheminUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 1:18SJSDavid SchlemkoGWGAssists: Logan Couture, Kevin Labanc · Wrist, 0.48 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:16COLFrancois Beauchemin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:52SJSJustin Braun: Holding2 min
- P1 15:52COLMatt Duchene: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 6:24COLGabriel Landeskog: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:52COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestGrigorenko – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:56
xG 1.50–0.28 (84%)attempts 23–11goals 2–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Martinsen9:16
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Duchene – Nieto – Landeskog14:23
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Iginla – Mitchell – Colborne8:14
xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Wiercioch4:51
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Goloubef17:33
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 31–15goals 1–1
- Tyutin – Zadorov13:55
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Wingels – Carpenter – Karlsson10:45
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Ward – Couture – Labanc4:15
xG 0.04–0.11 (27%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Couture – Boedker – Donskoi6:32
xG 0.20–0.29 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Boedker – Donskoi – Tierney5:00
xG 0.01–0.17 (8%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns17:24
xG 0.57–0.51 (53%)attempts 19–17goals 0–1
- Schlemko – Dillon11:31
xG 0.37–0.41 (47%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun18:14
xG 0.08–1.06 (7%)attempts 9–23goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).