Sun, Jan 22, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Columbus Blue Jackets 7, Ottawa Senators 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 28 | 19 | 311 | 11 | 729 |
| OTT | 29 | 317 | 18 | 00 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:42OTTZack SmithAssists: Cody Ceci, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–1
- P1 1:16CBJNick FolignoPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Sam Gagner · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 5:33OTTZack SmithAssists: Cody Ceci, Curtis Lazar · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 10:18CBJScott HarringtonAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Dalton Prout · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 0:56CBJZach WerenskiPPAssists: Seth Jones, Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 10:41OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Snap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P2 13:08OTTMark StoneAssists: Derick Brassard, Zack Smith · Slap, 0.29 xG3–4
- P2 19:43OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Tom Pyatt, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Snap, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 1:50CBJLukas SedlakAssists: Scott Hartnell, Scott Harrington · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–5
- P3 2:21CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Seth Jones, William Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG5–5
- P3 10:50CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–5
- P3 12:39OTTKyle TurrisPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.03 xG6–6
- OT 1:09CBJCam AtkinsonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG7–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:04OTTCody Ceci: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 1:39CBJDalton Prout: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 1:39OTTChris Neil: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 6:24OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 11:40CBJScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:37OTTMike Hoffman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:02CBJAlexander Wennberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:11OTTMike Hoffman: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:29CBJScott Harrington: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner9:50
xG 0.48–0.30 (62%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Hartnell – Gagner – Sedlak9:31
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson8:36
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg11:59
xG 0.08–0.84 (9%)attempts 8–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski16:09
xG 0.52–0.26 (67%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Prout – Harrington8:50
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 6–5goals 3–1
- Johnson – Murray18:03
xG 0.37–0.91 (29%)attempts 13–21goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Smith – Stone10:28
xG 0.86–0.11 (89%)attempts 15–4goals 2–0
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau10:08
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Kelly – Ryan – Turris2:11
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Neil – Ryan – Turris2:55
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Ceci8:31
xG 0.81–0.29 (74%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Methot – Ceci6:51
xG 0.65–0.25 (73%)attempts 10–8goals 3–1
- Wideman – Claesson5:13
xG 0.19–0.05 (81%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).