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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 26, 2017·TD Garden, Boston

Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Boston Bruins 4

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

3

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.

BOS winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT2130416323
BOS01331618437

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:37PITJustin SchultzUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P1 11:26PITPhil KesselPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
  3. P2 1:38BOSBrad MarchandSHAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Kevan Miller · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
  4. P2 6:27BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak, Brandon Carlo · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–2
  5. P2 10:25BOSRiley NashAssists: Torey Krug, Dominic Moore · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
  6. P3 0:51BOSPatrice BergeronPPGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Ryan Spooner · Snap, 0.26 xG2–4
  7. P3 10:35PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (19)
  1. P1 9:51BOSBrandon Carlo: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 11:49PITTom Kuhnhackl: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 17:56PITEric Fehr: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 0:36BOSAdam McQuaid: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 8:26PITTrevor Daley: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  6. P2 8:26BOSDavid Backes: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  7. P2 15:09BOSDavid Backes: Cross checking2 min
  8. P2 15:09BOSDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 15:09PITPhil Kessel: Cross checking2 min
  10. P2 15:09PITPhil Kessel: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 15:09PITEric Fehr: Roughing2 min
  12. P2 19:12PITScott Wilson: Instigator2 min · PPG
  13. P2 19:12BOSColin Miller: Fighting5 min
  14. P2 19:12PITScott Wilson: Fighting5 min
  15. P2 19:12PITScott Wilson: Misconduct10 min
  16. P3 1:38BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
  17. P3 15:26BOSMatt Beleskey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  18. P3 17:32PITTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
  19. P3 18:44BOSDavid Pastrnak: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
44% to win56% to win
← PIT attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Crosby
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITBOS
23Shots on goal37
1.5Expected goals2.6
40Shot attempts65
30Faceoffs won41
5Power plays5
31Penalty minutes21
22Hits27
13Blocked shots10
13Giveaways7
12Takeaways13

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Forward lines

  1. Kunitz – Hornqvist – Guentzel2:51

    xG 0.12–0.08 (61%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0

  2. Kunitz – Fehr – Kuhnhackl3:58

    xG 0.08–0.04 (67%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0

  3. Kessel – Bonino – Hagelin7:58

    xG 0.08–0.11 (41%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0

  4. Crosby – Rust – Sheary12:49

    xG 0.30–0.67 (31%)attempts 8–20goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestCole – Schultz10:00

    xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0

  2. Cole – Ruhwedel2:22

    xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

  3. Schultz – Dumoulin3:07

    xG 0.02–0.08 (15%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0

Boston Bruins

Forward lines

  1. bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:00

    xG 0.80–0.17 (82%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1

  2. Backes – Krejci – Vatrano9:52

    xG 0.34–0.11 (75%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0

  3. Beleskey – Nash – Spooner8:11

    xG 0.07–0.03 (69%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0

  4. Moore – Hayes – Schaller3:48

    xG 0.06–0.18 (26%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestMiller – Carlo3:46

    xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0

  2. Chara – McQuaid8:22

    xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0

  3. McQuaid – Krug5:27

    xG 0.19–0.07 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 2.6 xGPIT 1.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 72/100 · #314 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.52 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 21% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.

BOS winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).