Thu, Jan 26, 2017·Prudential Center, Newark
Washington Capitals 5, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 29 | 217 | 110 | 536 |
| NJD | 011 | 29 | 09 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:14WSHAlex OvechkinUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 18:28WSHAndre BurakovskyPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–0
- P2 3:19NJDStefan NoesenAssists: Pavel Zacha, Jacob Josefson · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 8:29WSHLars EllerGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 10:19WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Alex Ovechkin · Backhand, 0.15 xG4–1
- P2 18:16NJDAdam HenriquePPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, PA Parenteau · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 18:07WSHEvgeny KuznetsovENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.72 xG5–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 17:37NJDKyle Palmieri: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:01WSHKarl Alzner: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:25NJDVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:25WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:25WSHMatt Niskanen: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:23NJDKarl Stollery: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:19NJDSteven Santini: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:38WSHDaniel Winnik: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:52WSHTom Wilson: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 6:52NJDKyle Palmieri: Instigator2 min
- P3 6:52WSHBrooks Orpik: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:52NJDKyle Palmieri: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:52NJDKyle Palmieri: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Beagle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Johansson – Kuznetsov10:53
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Stephenson2:50
xG 0.10–0.03 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky8:04
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Winnik – Wilson – Stephenson5:52
xG 0.26–0.51 (34%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Orlov12:12
xG 0.48–0.30 (61%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Chorney – Schmidt8:44
xG 0.58–0.49 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Chorney – Orlov2:12
xG 0.02–0.02 (51%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Palmieri – Hall11:31
xG 1.05–0.17 (86%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Fiddler – Smith-Pelly5:46
xG 0.59–0.27 (69%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Josefson – Noesen – Zacha6:22
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Zajac – Hall – Noesen2:08
xG 0.03–0.08 (26%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Merrill13:07
xG 0.68–0.08 (89%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Stollery – Santini11:45
xG 0.66–0.63 (51%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Quincey – Severson14:42
xG 0.57–0.89 (39%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).