Thu, Jan 26, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Calgary Flames 3, Ottawa Senators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 210 | 08 | 12 | 326 |
| OTT | 06 | 08 | 210 | 03 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:39CGYMicheal FerlandUnassisted · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–0
- P2 17:08CGYSean MonahanAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–0
- P3 2:01OTTTommy WingelsAssists: Fredrik Claesson · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 18:58OTTChris WidemanAssists: Mike Hoffman, Zack Smith · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 4:29CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund · Snap, 0.19 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:35CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:06CGYMichael Frolik: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 2:34OTTChris Kelly: Holding2 min
- P2 17:32CGYKris Versteeg: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:59OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Gaudreau – Monahan11:24
xG 0.39–0.08 (82%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Ferland9:13
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 5–11goals 1–1
- Backlund – Chiasson – Tkachuk8:13
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Bennett11:29
xG 0.24–0.57 (30%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton13:54
xG 0.62–0.34 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Engelland – Kulak13:53
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Wideman – Brodie16:03
xG 0.71–0.68 (51%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Stone3:16
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Brassard – Hoffman – Stone4:41
xG 0.26–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Dzingel8:08
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Smith – Pageau2:39
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Claesson3:07
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Wideman4:33
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Wideman – Claesson6:45
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).